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Polls show Biden in a near-tie or trailing Trump ahead of the 2022 midterms, with many voters open to changing their minds.
Concerns about the economy and inflation outweighed other issues for voters.
Analyst Aaron Blake noted that “it’s not so clear the American public saw the home run that they did.”
Additional polls gave Trump higher ratings than Biden on most issues besides abortion and climate change.
Analysis of post-State of the Union polling found Biden’s speech reviews were actually lower than historical averages and shifts in views of national direction were also unremarkable compared to past speeches, suggesting the audience was more divided.
“The 17-point shift toward the country moving in the ‘right direction’ was also unremarkable, historically speaking. Dating back to Bill Clinton’s 1998 State of the Union address, viewers have shifted an average of 15 points toward that more optimistic view,” Blake wrote.
While direct speech reviews are important, the analyst cautioned that longer-term impacts on issues like perceptions of Biden’s acuity could be more significant indicators.
“Now we get to the caveat, and that’s that viewers Thursday were less aligned with the president than your average State of the Union audience — potentially because we’re in a campaign year or because questions about Biden’s ability to perform drew in more people who were skeptical of him,” he added. “That appears to explain at least part of the poorer-than-normal reviews — but not all.”
Overall perceptions of the candidates appear volatile with many voters still persuadable.
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