OPINION | This article contains opinion. This site is licensed to publish this content.
🚨 Are we doing a good job? | Send A Tip
Joe Biden and the Democrats are in big trouble with the upcoming 2022 midterm elections.
If the so-called “misery index” is accurate, according to a Bloomberg Economics study, Democrats can expect “to lose 30 to 40 seats in the House and also several in the Senate.”
This would cause Democrats to lose control of both chamber in Congress.
I always thought the "misery index" was kind of a crude, outdated 80s measure of the economy.
But it turns out that just adding up unemployment + CPI is in fact a pretty decent proxy for consumer sentiment (inverse) pic.twitter.com/TiCKNOdyjE
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) August 1, 2022
The misery index adds up inflation and unemployment rates in order to generate a forecast for upcoming elections.
It has been a “reasonably accurate barometer over the decades.”
The highest scores on the misery index are occurring in Texas, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Delaware.
Inflation has hit a runaway figure of 9.1 percent under Biden’s watch.
— New York Post (@nypost) August 1, 2022
'Misery Index' shows Democrats losing 30-40 seats in midterms – election battlegrounds like Nevada and Ohio among the gloomiest U.S. states for inflation and jobs ranking https://t.co/CNG2IMSpDh
— Tammy Bruce (@HeyTammyBruce) August 1, 2022
More on this story via Daily Mail:
The misery index is calculated by adding up the inflation and unemployment rates to create a measure of voters’ likely attitudes when they cast ballots on November 8.
By October, the index could have hit 12 percent. Barring a spike in early 2020 at the start of the Covid-19, that would be the highest level since the dragged-out recession in 2011.
Models for predicting elections are far from perfect — but the misery index has been relatively successful over the decades.
Other midterm election forecasts range from sweeping Republican gains to an effective wash. Still, there is a consensus in Washington that inflation at 9.1 percent and high gas prices will hurt Democrats.
Liz Young, an investment strategist at finance firm SoFi, said the index was elevated ‘but still way lower than in the 70’s and 80’s when both inflation and unemployment were high’.
The study was released after a glut of gloomy economic indicators.